I tried day to day trading. Lost 20% of my portfolio. Switch back everything to Bitcoin and haven't touched it.
https://twitter.com/naval/status/1109704032204009473
This is one is pretty straightforward.
If you make a 2% investment over 20 years without taking back your capital, you'll make a 50% ROI over the long run.
Same in life, James clear draw this chart once :
Just improve 1% every day for a year. Effort compounds.
When analyzing all the facts, bitcoin had more upside potential than downside's one.
The question i asked my self was : does bitcoin have more than 10% chance of doing 10x over the next 5 years ? And even if it doesn't, what is the probability of it going to 0 ?
I estimated at that time that Bitcoin had 50% chance of making me a 10x, 25% of being steady and neither dip nor increase and 25% chance of it going to 0.
My expected value for that bet was therefore :
$$ 1/210 + 1/41 + 1/4*0 = 5,25 $$
It means that on average, that kind of bet would make me a 5,25x ROI.
I took the bet.