## 1. Long term bets > short term bets.

I tried day to day trading. Lost 20% of my portfolio. Switch back everything to Bitcoin and haven't touched it.

https://twitter.com/naval/status/1109704032204009473

## 2. Compound interest is the ultimate leverage

This is one is pretty straightforward.

If you make a 2% investment over 20 years without taking back your capital, you'll make a 50% ROI over the long run.

Same in life, James clear draw this chart once :

Just improve 1% every day for a year. Effort compounds.

## 3. Take asymmetric bets

When analyzing all the facts, bitcoin had more upside potential than downside's one.

The question i asked my self was : does bitcoin have more than 10% chance of doing 10x over the next 5 years ? And even if it doesn't, what is the probability of it going to 0 ?

I estimated at that time that Bitcoin had **50% chance of making me a 10x**, **25% of being steady** and neither dip nor increase and **25% chance of it going to 0**.

My expected value for that bet was therefore :

$$
1/2*10 + 1/4*1 + 1/4*0 = 5,25
$$

It means that **on average**, that kind of bet would make me a 5,25x ROI.

I took the bet.